| John Arquilla
War forms an integral part of the history of mankind, alternately
driving civilization forward, then imperiling it. A natural ambivalence
toward war has thus developed, with its acceptance as a necessary
evil tempered by vigorous, sustained efforts to control its frequency
and intensity. Thus, from the dawn of the recorded history of
conflict, attempts have been made to craft an ethical approach to
war. They break down into two categories: a set of guidelines
regarding going to war at all and a set of strictures by which
combatants, should they adhere to them, might fight during a war in
a just manner. These dimensions of the ethical approach to war
have received searching scrutiny. In this early period of the
information age, the time has come to revisit these ethical concepts,
as new forms of conflict are emerging to test existing understanding
of "just wars"much as advanced information technologies
are
already requiring a rethinking of a wide range of commercial and
criminal laws.
Another reason to devote some attention to ethical issues and future
conflict is that, in the mountainous sea of literature on information
warfare, little attention has been given thus far to its ethical
dimensions. 1 Part of the problem is that information warfare is itself
a multifaceted conceptin Martin Libickis phrase, "a
mosaic of
forms." (Libicki, 1996, p. 6.) Information warfare is a concept that
ranges from the use of cyberspace to attack communication nodes
and infrastructures to the use of information media in the service of
psychological influence techniques. Because it constitutes such a
variety of conflict modes, information warfare poses problems for
those who seek out ethical guidelines for its waging.
This subject is of importance to Americans, from civilian and military
leaders to the mass public. Information warfare, as it evolves, is
demonstrating a growing disruptive capacity, both against classic
military command and control nodes and against many elements of
the national information infrastructure. Quite simply, the United
States, whose society has grown dependent upon advanced information
technologies, has the most to lose from a wide-ranging
information warand thus has an interest in preventing its outbreak.
A well-informed ethical approach to the burgeoning problem
of information warfare may even demonstrate that it is possible, in
this case, to do good and to do well. Indeed, an ethical approach to
conflict in the information realm may swiftly prove as practically
useful and valuableeven when the opponent is a nonstate criminal
or terrorist organizationas it is morally desirable.
This chapter draws from historical notions of ethics and war and
applies them to the phenomenon of information warfare. First, the
key concepts of just war theory are explained, and a functional definition
of information warfare is developed. Next, the various ethical
formulations are appraised in light of information-age effects on the
conduct of warfare. Last, insights are drawn from this analysis, and
guidelines for "just" information warfare are advanced.
CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS
A remarkable consistency characterizes thinking about just wars,
from ancient to modern times. Thus, nearly three millennia ago,
concerns were advanced about the need for an ethical approach to
going to war, as well as to waging war. For example, the ancient
Greek geographer, Strabo, observed that, in the War of the Lelantine
Plain (circa 700 BCE), all parties agreed to ban the use of
"projectile
missiles" because they constituted an ethically repugnant form of
war. The Greeks were also concerned about honoring treaties and
conventions and about avoiding undue brutality. (Ober, 1994.)
These notions track very closely with the Thomist paradigm, devel-
oped in the Middle Ages,
which still dominates thinking about ethics
and conflict. 2
The Concepts of Just War Theory
The key concepts of just war theory fall into the categories of criteria
for going to war (jus ad bellum) and fighting justly during war (jus
in
bello):
Tenets of Just War (Jus ad Bellum)
A. Right Purpose. Justifiable reasons for going to war revolve
around the concept of self-defense. Notions of right purpose
generally include such ideas as preemption (i.e., striking in
anticipation of an oncoming attack), but are less open to the
idea that preventive war (i.e., striking at a propitious time) is
just. 3 Also, this category excludes wars of conquest or
annexation.
B. Duly Constituted Authority. It is clear from all the literature
on ethics and war that a necessary condition for having a just
war is that the decision to fight must come from a government
not from an individual. Wars waged by individuals
have always fallen outside the law, the best example being
provided by 19th-century prohibitions on the practice of private
wars, or "filibusters," as they were then known.
C. Last Resort. Simply put, war cannot be considered just
unless it follows exhaustive pursuit of negotiations and other
means of conflict resolution. A good example of this is given
in Thucydides depiction of the extended crisis-bargaining
between Athens and Sparta as both sides sought in vain to
head off the oncoming Peloponnesian War. 4 The run-up
to
the Gulf War sounded many echoes of these ancient events.
Concepts of Just Warfighting (Jus in Bello)
D. Noncombatant Immunity. Wherever and whenever possible,
according to just war theory, those waging the war must
strive to avoid harming civilians or enemy troops that have
surrendered. Fleeing troops that have no ability to fight (e.g.,
the Iraqi troops retreating along the "highway of death") fall
into a gray area ethically, attacks upon them being
allowedbut not encouraged. 5 Conventional aerial
bombing and, later, nuclear war, have posed problems for
the notion of noncombatant immunity that remain
unresolved. One attempt to cope with this was by
considering air and nuclear attacks on strategic targets as
permissible, with civilian losses treated as "collateral."
(Walzer, 1977, pp. 255260.) 6
E. Proportionality. There are several aspects to this notion. 7
First, and best known, is the issue of using force in a manner
avoiding excessive application. A second facet, though,
might be that this concept requires ensuring that a sufficient
proportion of ones forces, relative to the adversary, are
employed, so as to enhance the probability of winning. Thus
there is a built-in tension between the need for "enough,"
but not "too much," force. Finally, the term is often used to
mean response in kind, or in a tit-for-tat fashion. 8
F. More Good Than Harm. This is a concept from the Thomist
paradigm. This notion implies, of warfighting, that ethical
conduct requires calculation of the net good to be achieved
by a particular use of force. An example of such a calculation,
though clouded by violation of notions of noncombatant
immunity, is Trumans decision to drop the atomic
bomb on Hiroshima to avoid a more costly conventional
invasion of Japan.
As one considers these ethical constructs, it appears that ideas about
the second broad category, just warfighting, might also form part of
the calculations for going to war in the first place. Thus, they should
all be seen as interrelated aspects of just war theory. However, from
an ethical perspective, it seems clear that responding to the ad bellum
factors must be considered a primary duty of those who would
make decisions about war and peace. The in bello factors, while
related to decisions regarding conflict initiation, should be seen, in
ethical terms, as lying within the realm of decisionmakers secondary
duties. 9
The six facets described above cover most of the conceptual ground,
and they should allow for analysis of any latent tensions between
duty- and utility-based ethics; the potential for escalation from
information warfare to conventional, or even nuclear, war; and the
prospects for some form of operational arms control. 10 The need
now, though, is to consider how this multidimensional definition of
just war theory fits with current notions of information warfare.
Defining Information Warfare
To consider the ethical dimensions of information warfare, it is first
crucial that the phenomenon be classifiable as a true form of war, as
opposed to being just a manifestation of criminal or terrorist activity
or an extension of covert psychological operations or intelligence-
oriented activities. With this in mind, it is useful to note that,
in the several years since the introduction of information warfare,
the concept has evolved and broadened to include activities that,
while information-driven, are not considered warfare and therefore
do not invoke the ethical concepts of just war theory.
To separate these two classes of activities, a broad view has emerged,
in which the term information operations refers to the entire range
of
information-intensive interactions across a spectrum that includes
psychological operations; perception management; information
security; and, of course, information warfare. Use of "information
operations" thus allows us to reserve the term information warfare
for a specific subset of warlike activities, all of which invoke just war
theory.
Of what, then, does information warfare consist? Principally, this
form of war concerns striking at communication nodes and infrastructures.
The weapons used in such attacks are generally thought
to be those employable via cyberspace (e.g., logic bombs, computer
viruses). However, information warfare also includes the use of a
variety of other offensive tools, from conventional explosives to high-
power microwave weapons, that can also be used to strike at information-
rich targets.
Attacks on information-rich targets using conventional weapons,
while undoubtedly an integral part of information warfare, present
few ethical novelties because they have long been a part of warfare.
Therefore, this chapter will focus on the ethical implications of the
new forms of warfare implicit in information warfare, particularly the
weapons employable via cyberspace.
The range of operations that might make use of information warfare
extends broadly, from the battlefield to the enemy home front. Thus,
information warfare may serve as a form of close-support for military
forces during active operations. It may also be employed in strategic
campaigns designed to strike directly at the will and logistical support
of an opponent. The last notion of information warfare, in
which it may be pursued without a prior need to defeat an adversarys
armed forces, is an area of particular interest. 11 In many
respects, it resembles notions of the strategic uses of airpower that
emerged in the 1920s and 1930s and merits, therefore, close scrutiny
from an ethical perspectivemuch as air warfare was the focus of
serious ethical debate prior to and during World War II. 12
Although it may bear a strategic resemblance to airpower, information
warfare has a quite different set of effects and properties. While
airpower can generally perform much destruction on fixed points
(e.g., in World War II, on U-boat pens and ball-bearing plants), 13
information attacks, even using conventional weapons, inflict far less
destruction. 14 Rather, the effects of information attacks are disrup-
tive, and may occur over wide areas (e.g., knocking out a geographic
power grid), even in the face of defensive redundancies emplaced in
anticipation of information-warfare attacks. Another difference is
that, while strategic aerial bombardment inevitably causes civilian
losses, even with todays guided weapons, information weapons will
lead to far fewer deathsdespite the widespread disruptive effects.
This lower lethality and destructiveness may make the damage done
by information-warfare attacks somewhat harder to assess accurately
and may complicate calculations designed to craft a proportional
response.
Thus, strategic information weapons have area effects that, in some
respects, extend quite a bit further than even weapons of mass
destructionbut with "mass disruption" being their
hallmark. And
it is just this prospect of having wide effects without causing very
many deaths or dire environmental consequences that makes information
warfare such a potentially attractive form of conflict.
Although the existence of these capabilities is the subject of some
debate, it is assumed for the purposes of this study that such
capabilities
either already exist or soon will.
Finally, it is important to note the inherent blurriness with regard to
defining "combatants" and "acts of war." In strategic
aerial bombardment,
it is quite clear who is making the attacks. It is also clear
that the enemy combatants are its military forces. This latter notion
is relaxed a bit in guerrilla warfare, in which civilians often engage in
the fighting. But in information warfare, almost anyone can engage
in the fighting. Thus, it is important, from an ethical perspective, to
make a distinction between those with access to advanced information
technology and those using it for purposes of waging information
warfare. Further, the nature of cyberspace-based attacks is such
that there may often be an observational equivalence between
criminal, terrorist, and military actions. The ethical imperative that
attaches to these concerns is the need to determine the identity of
the perpetrators of information-warfare attacks and to make a distinction
between sporadic depredations and actions that form part
of a recognizable campaign in pursuit of discernible aims.
______________________________________________________________
JUST WAR THEORY AND INFORMATION WARFARE
Armed with the six tenets of just war theory and the pared-down
definition of information warfare described above, one may now
relate them to each other to determine the extent to which information
warfare can be said to be just or can be waged justly. This form
of analysis allows for a survey of the ethical issuesand elicits
some
surprising results.
Jus ad Bellum
In the realm of going to war ethically, the concept of "right
purpose"
does not appear to be put under much stress. Self-defense and preemption,
both allowed under classical just war theory, may have new
dimensions because of information warfare, as they may be applied
more promptly with disruptive information weapons. The one area
that may change is that of the use of force in preventive ways. Under
existing just war theory, prevention (i.e., striking to prevent the rise
of a threat, like the Israelis at Osirak in 1981) lies on tenuous ground.
But information warfare might prove especially useful in derailing
the rise of a threatening powerparticularly the forms of information
attack that might be useful in slowing down a potential adversarys
process of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
With regard to the second concept, "duly constituted authority,"
the
very nature of information weaponry may introduce new stresses for
this long-established ethical concept. For the types of capabilities
needed to field an information-warfare campaignparticularly one
that is waged principally in cyberspacethere is little need for the
levels of forces required in other forms of war. Therefore, the state
monopoly on war reflected in the concept of duly constituted
authority will likely be shaken, as nonstate actors rise in their ability
to wage information warfare. This may be part of an overall phenomenon
in which the information revolution is causing a diffusion
of power away from states and toward nonstate actorsboth
peaceful, civil society elements and the new "uncivil society"
of
information-age terrorists and transnational criminal organizations.
15 Finally, this rise of new
nonstate actors capable of waging
information warfare may also encourage states to employ them.
Indeed, nonstate actors will likely prove useful cutouts that help to
maintain deniability, or ambiguity, about the ultimate identity of an
adversary. This suggests the possibility that quite weak states may
thus be allowed to strike at the strong, given the lessened likelihood
that they will be discovered and subjected to retaliation. However,
this problem might be mitigated by improvements in cyberspacebased
detection, surveillance, and tracking technologies.
This ease of entry into the realm of information warfare not only
erodes the strictures against acting without duly constituted authority.
It also suggests that the convention regarding going to war only
as a last resort will come under strain. For information warfare,
though it may disrupt much, at great cost to the target, does little
actual destructionand will likely prove a form of warfare that
results in only incidental loss of life. In this respect, information
warfare can be viewed as somewhat akin to economic sanctions as a
tool of coercion (though probably less blunt an instrument than an
embargo). This similarity should also contribute to the erosion of the
last-resort principle. However, as with economic sanctions, certain
nonlethal parts of information warfare may not be considered acts of
war and thus may be exempt from just war considerationsa status
that would increase the likelihood of their use but would preserve
the integrity of the last-resort principle for actions deemed acts of
war.
Finally, in the case that all information-warfare actions are considered
acts of war, if information warfares low destructiveness is coupled
with a situation that features self-defensive "right
purpose"say, in a crisis where skillful preemption might head
off a
general warthe normative inhibition against early uses of force will
erode even further.
Jus in Bello
With regard to the issue of waging information warfare justly, there
are also many ways in which the classical concepts will come under
pressure. First, one approach to information warfare concentrates
on striking an adversarys transportation, power, communication,
and financial infrastructures. This must be seen as a kind of war that
targets noncombatants in a deliberate mannerbecause they will
suffer from such attacks
inevitably and seriously. The purpose of this
type of information warfare is to undermine the enemys will to
resist, or to persist, in a particular fight; in this respect, strategic
information warfare is very similar to early notions of strategic aerial
bombardment that targeted noncombatants. 16
In the realm of information warfare, it should be noted that, even as
planners may be driven to wage a form of war whose effects will be
most felt by noncombatants, there is another aspect to strategic
attackone strictly aimed at disrupting the movements and operations
of military forces. Information warfare is a sufficiently discriminate
tool that making this distinction is possibleand just war theory
implies eschewing the targeting of noncombatants and focusing
instead upon purely military targets and effects. Thus, an apparently
quite attractive coercive tool of force (strategic information warfare)
runs hard up against the enduring ethical constraints against attacking
noncombatants. This dimension of just war theory may, therefore,
pose the most nettlesome policy dilemmaand may require
the most creative solution.
Another thorny issue is posed by the just warfighting concept of
proportionality, whose major concern is with avoiding the use of
excessive force during a conflict. In one respect, the discriminate use
of information warfare should make it possible to wage war quite
proportionately. That is, it should be possible to respond to
information-warfare strikes by some adversary in a very precise, titfor-
tat fashion, neatly calculated and calibrated. However, two
problems might emerge that put notions of proportionality under
some stress. First, information-warfare attackers might strike at an
opponents critical infrastructures, but have few of their own that
could be retaliated against by means of information warfare. This
prompts the question of when more traditional military
measuresincluding some amount of lethal forcemight be used in
response to information-warfare attacks without violating notions of
proportionality.
Another problem might arise if the defender, or target, were struck
by information-warfare attack and had little or no means of
responding with information weaponry. Russian strategic thinkers
have considered this last issue, with some of their analysts ending up
recommending forceful responseseven to the extent of threatening
a renewed form of "massive retaliation" with weapons of mass
destruction against information-warfare attackers. In this respect,
Schellings suggestion that varied responses can solve one dilemma
of proportionality may engender a new dilemma: the asymmetrical
retaliatory response may tend toward escalation. A prime example
of the sort of problem that can arise is Russian declaratory policy
toward information-warfare attacks. As one Russian defense analyst
put it recently:
From a military point of view, the use of information warfare means
against Russia or its armed forces will categorically not be considered
a non-military phase of conflict, whether there were casualties
or not. . . . considering the possible catastrophic consequences of
the use of strategic information warfare means by an enemy,
whether on economic or state command and control systems, or on
the combat potential of the armed forces. Russia retains the right to
use nuclear weapons first against the means and forces of information
warfare, and then against the aggressor state itself. (Tsymbal, 1995.)17
Thus, Thomas Schelling should
be seen as providing some guidance
in these issue areas, but his solution poses difficulties and risks. He
has noted that proportionality is a reasonable principle, one that
need not be considered to require the use of identical weaponry
when one is engaging in retaliation. He also implicitly argues that
the risk escalatory threats pose is not necessarily credible. See, for
example, his assessment of the 1950s U.S. policy of massive nuclear
retaliation as a concept that "was in decline almost from its
enunciation."
(Schelling, 1966, p. 190.) Yet the massive retaliatory threat
may be the only credible deterrent that a potential victim of information
warfare may be able to pose. Aside from deliberately disproportionate
responses, there is also the problem that gauging the
comparability of damage done by radically differing weapon systems
(e.g., exploding smart bombs versus computer logic bombs) is going
to prove quite difficult. Finally, the problem of perpetrator ambiguity
further weakens proportionate response, because one may simply
not have enough data to determine just who is responsible for a particular
attack.
The last of the just warfighting issues that must be considered is even
more nebulous than notions of proportionality. It consists of the
admonition to engage in operations that do more good than harm. 18
However, even if difficult to measure or define, this requirement for
ethical calculation of costs versus benefits may be eased by the idea
that information warfare requires, and effects, but little destruction
and will likely lead to scant loss of life. Unlike the terrible dilemma
that faced President Trumana choice between massive immediate
casualties inflicted upon the enemy in the near term, versus perhaps
greater long-term losses for Japanese and Americansinformation
warfare may afford the prospect of a use of force that causes little
destruction but that might, used properly, help to head off a potentially
bloody war.
SOME GUIDELINES FOR POLICY
Based on the foregoing description and analysis of the ways in which
notions of information warfare interact with just war concepts, it is
now possible to think about establishing a general set of guidelines
that will help decisionmakers and information warriors behave as
ethically as circumstances allowor at least to recognize and strive
to resolve the apparent tension that arises here between utility- and
duty-based ethical guidelines. Rectitude aside, it must also be
recognized that war is about winning. Therefore, guidance for policy
or doctrine must cope with the dilemmas that may emerge as a result
of striving to act properly and taking the pragmatic actions that are
likely to lead to victory.
A good example of this sort of problem is provided by the ancient
Israelites in their (2nd century, BCE) efforts to break free from
domination
by the Seleucids, the inheritors of one part of Alexanders
empire. The Hebrew scripture forbade fighting on the Sabbathso
the Greeks soon learned to attack on this day. The slaughters of the
rebellious, but observant, Jews that ensued are poignantly lamented:
"Let us all die in our innocence. Leaves and earth testify for us
that
you are killing us unjustly." As the uprising faltered, one of the
wise
Jewish leaders, Mattathias, perceived the problem and provided an
ethical adjustment, in the nick of time, that allowed them at least to
defend themselves without violating Gods law: "They will
quickly
destroy us from the earth. Therefore, let us fight against every man
who comes to attack us on the Sabbath day." Thus, just warfighting
was allowed on the Sabbathbut only defensive operations.19 Soon,
the Maccabees won their freedom.
Policy Toward Going to War
The first issue engaged, regarding "right purpose," basically
boils
down to the question of whether the improved capacity for preventive
strikes granted by information warfare can overcome the ethical
problems posed by offensive war initiation. The ethical problem
deepens when it is recognized that preventive warstriking forcefully
before an adversary has serious, threatening capabilitieswill
generally mean going to war before diplomatic options have been
exhausted, that is, not as a "last resort."20 On the
other hand, the
basically disruptive rather than destructive nature of information
warfare suggests the possibility of a "just warfighting"
approach to
prevention that eases the ethical dilemma.
Simply put, prevention by means of information warfare might be
allowable if (1) strikes were aimed strictly at military targets (e.g.,
command and control nodes), to avoid or generally limit damage to
noncombatants; (2) the amount of suasion employed was enough to
deter or substantially slow an attacker, without being so excessive as
to have dire economic or social effects; and (3) the good done by pre-
venting an adversary from being able to start a particular conflict, or
type of conflict, could be said to outweigh the wrong of using force
beyond the realm of clearly definable self-defense.21 Thus, jus
in
bello considerations may be seen as mitigating a serious jus ad
bellum
constraint on information warfare.
The second policy concern, that of remaining within the bounds of
notions of duly constituted authority, poses little difficulty from the
U.S. perspective, or for any state, for that matterso long as a
state
actor refrains from employing a nonstate cutout to wage information
warfare on its behalf. The problem goes deeper, though, as the very
nature of information warfare implies that the ability to engage in
this form of conflict rests now in the hands of small groups and
individuals
no longer being the monopoly of state actors. This offers
up the prospect of potentially quite large numbers of information
warfarecapable combatants emerging, often pursuing their own, as
opposed to some states, policies.
Finally, the just war admonition to engage in conflict only as a last
resort must also be examined. Here, the previous discussion of prevention
is useful, in that early uses of information warfare may,
overall, have some beneficial effects and may not do serious damage
to noncombatants. Weighed against this, though, are long-standing
normative inhibitions against "going first" in war. For
policymakers,
the answer is most likely that, as in the nettlesome case of duly
constituted
authority, so with last resort, there is no easily accepted
answer. The rise of nonstate actors implies a serious, perhaps fatal,
weakening of this just war constraint; likewise, the ease with which
use of information warfare may be contemplated suggests that a sea
change will occur with regard to notions of "justice" requiring
that
war always be undertaken as a last resort. Finally, it may prove possible
to relax the ethical strictures about last resort if informationwarmakers
engaging in early use emphasize disruptive actsavoiding
actions that engender significant destruction.
In summary, it appears that policy perspectives on the just initiation
of an information war have left a good part of just war theory in tatters.
Information warfare now makes preventive war far more thinkable
(and practical), straining the limits of the concept of "right
purpose."
And the manner in which the information revolution empowers
small groups and individuals to wage information warfare suggests
that the notion of duly constituted authority may also have lost
meaning. Finally, the ease in undertaking information-warfare
operations, and the fact that they are disruptive, but not very
destructive, weakens the notion that justice requires that war be
started only as a last resort.
On Just Warfighting
Given the ease with which entry may be made into the ranks of
information warfarecapable states and nonstate actors and the
attractiveness of targets that primarily serve civilian commercial,
transportation, financial, resource, and power infrastructures, the
greatest jus in bello concern for information warfare may be the
problem of maintaining "noncombatant immunity." The number of
actors will be (perhaps already is) large and is hardly subject to
centralized
control. The civilian-oriented target set is huge and is likely
to be more vulnerable than the related set of military infrastructures
except to the extent that the infrastructures simultaneously
serve both the military and civilian sectors. Thus, the urge to strike
at targets that will damage civilians (mostly in the economic and
environmental senses, but including some incidental losses of life)
may prove irresistible. In many ways, information warfare affords
the opportunity to achieve the coercive goals that Douhet and De
Seversky associated with strategic air bombardmentminus the
bloodshed. Indeed, strategic information warfare appears to lie
somewhere between airpower and economic sanctions on the spectrum
of tools of suasion. It can be far more disruptive and costly to
an adversary than an economic embargo but is less destructive than
bombingcharacteristics that may make it a very attractive policy
option.
But the ease of engaging in and the attractiveness of information
warfare must be weighed, for the purpose of policy analysis, against
both the ethical and practical concerns. The ethical problem is clear:
A significant aspect of information warfare aims at civilian and civil-
ian-oriented targets; also,
despite its negligible lethality, it nonetheless
violates the principle of noncombatant immunity, given that
civilian economic or other assets are deliberately targeted. In addition
to the ethical dilemma posed by information warfare, there is
the practical problem that whoever might begin the business of striking
at civilian-oriented targets would be inviting retaliation in
kindboth from nation-states and from individuals or small groups
that are armed with advanced information technology.
The problem is akin to that of the issue of the aerial bombing of
cities, as conceived of in the 1920s and 1930s. The air powers of the
day were in general agreementonce it grew clear that many would
have this capabilitythat they would avoid striking at each
others
cities. Indeed, with only a few exceptions, the warring states at the
outset of World War II strove to refrain from deliberately bombing
civilian targets. 22 Indeed the circumstances that sparked a shift,
leading to the London Blitz and the Royal Air Forces retaliatory
fire
bombings of German cities were accidental. 23 However,
once the
shift was made, all combatants went about the business of civilian
targeting with a will, culminating in the nuclear attacks on
Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The trend of targeting civilians deepened,
if anything, in the Korean War, at the end of which only one undamaged
building stood in all Pyongyang. 24 But todays technologies are
refining the accuracy of air bombardment, making it possible to craft
campaigns that do far less damage to civilians or civilian-oriented
targets.
No such technological solution appears imminent in the realm of
information warfare. There is rather the problem of a diffusion of
attack capabilities to many actors who may have the capability to
mount precise attacks, but perhaps have little incentive to limit their
aggression. This implies a practical need to find ways to discourage
attacks on civilian-oriented targets. From a policy perspective, there
is an initiative that a leading information power, such as the United
States, might take: adopting a declaratory doctrine of "no first
use"
of information warfare against largely civilian targets. It is a simple,
straightforward step, but one that nevertheless still allows for
information-
warfare strikes against military-oriented targets (e.g., operations
centers, logistics, and command and control nodes). 25 Further,
it allows retaliation in the event that ones own civilian targets
have been hit (presuming that the attackers identity can be
ascertained).
The problem of ambiguity regarding information-warfare perpetrators
is indeed difficult but is not insurmountable. In the context of
war, there is always some purpose to such attacks, and one may add
logical inference to the pool of other detection resources in parsing
out just who is behind the attacks in question. This may mitigate the
problem of ambiguity, which existed in earlier erasand has been
coped with effectively. A good example of dealing with ambiguity is
the "phantom" submarine attacks on merchant ships bringing aid
to
the Loyalists during the Spanish Civil War (19361939). Britain
quickly inferred that the Italians, supporters of the Fascists, were
likely suspects behind these attacks; a retaliatory threat was soon
made, despite Italian denials of culpability. The British remained
firm, asserting that the Italians would be struck unless the attacks
were halted. The "phantom pirate" attacks stopped immediately
and
never resumed. 26
The other potential problem with a no-first-use pledge is that it takes
away an attractive coercive toolthe use of information-warfare
strikes against a potential aggressors many infrastructures as a
means of signaling or deterring attack in some politico-military crisis.
Against this benefit, however, one must weigh the cost of participating
in a behavioral regime in which such attacks are
toleratedand that would likely do enormous disruptive harm to the
richest set of information targets in the world, which are to be found
in the United States. Even with a pledge of no first use against
civilian-oriented targets, the option of using information warfare
against enemy militaries remainsand, properly employed, might
prove to be a good deterrent.
Compared to the problems with crafting policy approaches that will
cope with the new dilemmas for noncombatant immunity, which are
difficult but not unduly so, the policy alternatives in the realms of
"proportionality" and acting in a way that does "more good
than
harm" seem much less daunting. With regard to proportionality, a
number of very straightforward options seem available.
First, a good declaratory position on proportionality might extend to
a policy by which information-warfare attacks would engender identical
retaliatory responsesubject, of course, to proper identification
of the perpetrator. However, when the attacker does not have a set
of information targets large enough for a proportionate response, or
has no information-oriented targets, the retaliation might have to
take the form of the use of more-traditional military force against
strategic targets of the perpetrator. In this case, proportionality may
prove complex in the operational phase.
With regard to doing more good than harm, this aspect of just war
theory seems still both useful and feasible. The discriminate nature
of information warfare should allow a very careful calibration of
effects. The only likely difficulty could ensue in situations in which
information-warfare attacks do not have the coercive results envisioned.
Indeed, it may prove very difficult to predict the psychological
effects of such attacks on either elite decisionmakers or mass
publics. In this case, if information warfare were used preventively
or preemptively and failed in its purpose, it might even be said that
an escalation to general war was the fault of taking the
informationwarfare
action in the first place. Therefore, the risks of escalation
versus the likelihood that information warfare will head off a conflict
must be very carefully assessed before relaxing any notions of "right
purpose," "last resort" or "noncombatant
immunity."
CLOSING THOUGHTS
The key points to be drawn from this chapter begin with the insight
that information warfare may seriously attenuate the ethics of going
to war (jus ad bellum). Secondarily, though, just warfighting (jus
in
bello) issues seem to retain their currency and value.
Policy toward and doctrinal development of information warfare
thus need to focus on the latter area, taking special care to avoid
encouraging strikes against civilian-oriented targets but giving less
considerationrelativelyto proportionality and doing more good
than harm. The last two issues are simply less nettlesome than the
burgeoning problem of civilian vulnerability to strategic information
warfare.
Information warfare makes war more thinkable. This seems
inescapableand quite troubling. Yet it does not require that waging
information warfare be either destructive or unjust. To the contrary,
ethical notions of just warfighting will likely continue to provide
a useful guide to behavior well into the information age. This
poses the possibility of giving an affirmative answer to James Turner
Johnsons question (Johnson, 1984) about whether modern war,
replete with all its emerging technologies, can ever be just.
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NOTES
1 A very thoughtful early discussion of the legal dimensions of information
warfare can
be found in Aldrich (1996). Also, see Schwartau (1996).
2 See Thomas Aquinas, Summa Theologica, especially Book II, Part
II. Ramsey (1961)
remains a classic exposition of the Thomist view of just war. On just war
theory during
this period, see also Russell (1975).
3 It should be noted that ideas about "right purpose" in the
nuclear era have retained
self-defense as an ethical construct, while preemption is viewed as
unacceptablethough not without some dissent. Preventive nuclear war,
though
seriously contemplated in the late 1940s and early 1950s to preserve the
U.S.
monopoly on atomic weapons, is very nearly unanimously considered
ethically
unacceptable. On these issues, see Rosenberg (1994).
4 Thucydides, The History of the Peloponnesian War, Book I, Chs.
14. See also Kagan
(1994).
5 On this point, Walzer (1977), p. 129, notes that the rule of thumb is to
limit "excessive
harm." Yet, he observes that many have argued that this restriction
can be relaxed if
such action contributes clearly and materially to victory.
6 Also, it should be noted that strategic aerial bombardment has just as
often been
used deliberately to terrorize civilians, being considered a key element
of deterrence
stability and coercive diplomacy. See Quester (1966) and Pape (1995). The
willingness
of nuclear strategists to accept the likelihood of some
"collateral" civilian losses grows,
in part, out of the perceived need to strike an adversary in time to
disrupt his own
oncoming attack (preemption), or to strike early enough that the enemy
will not be
able even to develop a threatening capability of his own
(prevention)as in the case
of the 1981 Israeli raid on the Iraqi nuclear weapon program at Osiraq.
7 Johnson (1981), pp. xxiixxiii, observes that the concept of
proportionality falls under
both jus ad bellum and jus in bello. In the former case, the
author argues that
proportionality refers to "doing more harm than good." In the
latter, he suggests limits
on the kinds of weapons that may be used. For purposes of this study,
proportionality
is considered as described in E, above, because this captures much of both
of
Johnsons notions. Further, the idea of doing more harm than good has
been considered
part of the notion of jus in bello, as this is a calculation more
possible to make
during, rather than prior, to a warsave perhaps with the exception
of nuclear war,
whose catastrophic consequences for all were never doubted.
8 For a modern perspective on the concept of proportionality, see
Schelling (1966),
who makes the important point that a proportional retaliation for an
attack need not
use means that are identical to those employed by an aggressor.
9 The author is grateful to Tora Bikson for pointing out that just war
theory, as subdivided
above, may be categorized in terms of the classical ethical notions of
primary
and secondary duty. This notion is apparent in the essays on ethics of
Bentham, Kant,
and others and is examined in detail in Moore (1993). The notion of duty
is also an
element in Rawls (1971). However, the conflicts inherent in striving to
reconcile
sometimes conflicting duties to "fairness" can be considerable,
as argued in Alejandro
(1997).
10 Operational arms control consists of constraints on behavior (e.g., on
the movement
or exercise of troops at certain times and places or the agreement not to
use certain
types of weapons, such as chemicals, land mines, or dumdum bullets).
Structural
arms control refers to limiting, reducing, or eliminating the actual
quantities of
weapons and, for the present, seems to lie beyond the ability to control
in this fashion
given the ease of production and diffusion of information weapons.
Yet, technological
advances do hold out the prospect for improving surveillance to a point
where
structural arms control of weapons of information warfare may become
feasible.
11 For an exposition of this view, see Molander, Wilson, and Riddile
(1996).
12 Garrett (1993) provides an excellent summary of the debate about the
ethics of airpower.
For a good discussion of strategic aerial bombardment as an autonomous
tool
of war, including skeptical French and cautious British views, see Quester
(1966), pp. 5070.
13 The discussion here is limited to the effects of airpower using
conventional explosives,
as opposed to weapons of mass destruction.
14 "Destruction" should be considered a multidimensional
concept. First, there is the
physical "burnout" of computers, power lines, system controls,
etc. Then there is the
erasure or corruption of data. Finally, there is loss of life (e.g., crash
of an airliner due
to a disrupted air traffic control system) and environmental damage (e.g.,
an oil
pipeline spill resulting from disruption of automated system controls) to
round out
the concept of destruction.
15 On these issues, see Hoffman (1997) and Williams (1994).
16 See Douhet (1942) and De Seversky (1942). Warden (1989) is a clear
throwback to
Douhet and De Seversky. On the other hand, nuclear strategists did strive
hard to
limit noncombatant losses, by developing the concept of counterforce
targeting. But
this palliative was seen as still allowing massive,
civilization-endangering casualties.
On this point, see Ball and Richelson (1986).
17 Thomas (1997), pp. 7677, reinforces the point that the Russians
see the information-
warfare threat as "real, and intensifying" and that one
perspective is indeed that
"Moscows only retaliatory capability at this time is the
nuclear response."
18 Again, it should be noted that some see this as a jus ad bellum issue.
See Johnson
(1981), p. xxii.
19 Quotes from 1 Maccabees 2:3741. This issue was also considered by
later
Talmudic scholars, notably Gersonides, in his The Wars of the Lord (as
excerpted in
Steinsaltz, 1976). See also the discussion in Steinsaltz (1976), p. 20.
20 Indeed, the most serious ethical problem with prevention is that the
adversary may
not even be contemplating going to war, yet he is struck. This dilemma was
but one of
the considerationsalbeit an important onethat led policymakers
to decide against
striking preventively against either Russias or, later, Chinas
nascent nuclear capabilities.
21In this regard, the oft-stated rationales of war initiators, that they
were simply
starting the war to "defend" their countries against threats
that would soon appear,
must be viewed with some skepticism. This is the sort of argument Napoleon
advanced, feeling he had to conquer all of Europe to defend France, as did
German
leaders in the first half of this century.
22 The German Luftwaffes bombings of Warsaw and Rotterdam,
the early exceptions,
were nevertheless circumstances in which both cities formed part of active
enemy
resistance to advancing German forces, and held substantial military
assets within
their boundaries. On these bombings, see Bekker (1968), pp. 5557,
100114. On the
accidental end of the "no-capital-cities" bombing convention in
World War II, see
Legro (1995), pp. 134141.
23 This had do with a German pilot inadvertently jettisoning his bombs
over London
when he thought he was elsewhere. Although this "accident"
spurred the Germans to
begin bombing British cities, senior Luftwaffe leaders had been
arguing for this
expansion of the campaign as a means of forcing the British Royal Air
Force to come
out and grapple with German fighters. On this, see Keegan (1989), p. 96.
24 Hastings (1987), p. 268, notes: "Installations in Pyongyang were
hit again by
massed bomber raids in July and August [1952]. . . . Pyongyang had been
flattened,
hundreds of thousands of North Korean civilians killed."
25 It is the same, in many respects, as the notion of no first use in the
nuclear context.
However, in the nuclear setting, this type of restraint was thought to
increase the risk
of the outbreak of conventional war. Because U.S. power today is
preponderant, it is
hard to conceive of a no-first-use pledge for information warfare as
having the effect
of undermining the deterrence of conventional war. The nuclear
no-first-use debate
is neatly exposited in two short essays. For the view in favor of no first
use, see Bundy
et al. (1982). The rebuttal soon followed, from Kaiser et al.(1982).
26 See Thomas (1961), pp. 475476, who notes that the British
retaliatory threat went
beyond attacking phantom submarines in Spanish waters, to include all
international
waters, even Italian territorial waters. The Italian Foreign Minister,
Count Galeazzo
Ciano, in his Diaries (1952), pp. 78, observed that this
threat, along with skillful
British diplomatic maneuvering at the Nyon Conference, put an end to the
secret
Italian campaign.
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